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2022年3月25日星期五

March 28-April 2 Week heavy information and data forecast

 From March 28 to April 2, the data that investors need to pay attention to: US wholesale inventories in February, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes, US ADP employment in March, US initial jobless claims and March non-farm payrolls. In terms of events, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting. This week also need to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and Bank of England Governor Bailey, or will release relevant news of future monetary policy.

Data that investors need to pay attention to in the week of March 28-April 2: US wholesale inventories in February, changes in API and EIA crude oil inventories, US March ADP employment, US initial jobless claims and March non-farm payrolls . In terms of events, attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. This week also need to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and Bank of England Governor Bailey, or will release relevant news of future monetary policy.

Monday (March 28) Keywords: U.S. wholesale inventories in February, Bank of England Governor Bailey

U.S. wholesale inventories in January were 0.8% final month-on-month, 0.8% expected, and 0.8% initial. Because wholesale inventories reflect demand from retailers for manufacturers' merchandise, the report provides an early indication of the spending strength of potential consumers.

The Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech will continue to be watched on Monday, especially on interest rate hikes. On February 23, Bailey said the Bank of England's asset sales would take place during "normal market conditions" as part of its quantitative tightening programme and could be suspended during periods of market turmoil. Bailey said the BoE would consider selling assets once interest rates hit 1%. The Bank of England will set its asset sales policy and overall profile ahead of time to minimize disruption to markets. Bailey thinks it is plausible that the money flowing into the Treasury from quantitative easing tools will be reversed at some stage. But he urged investors not to be too big on future rate hikes.

Tuesday (March 29) Keywords: Japan's unemployment rate in February, Philadelphia Fed President Harker's speechThe

Japanese government's data showed that Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.8% in January, while employment opportunities increased to the highest in 21 months level. The employment-to-applications ratio was 1.20 in January, up 0.03 points from 1.17 in the previous month, and above the 1.16 forecast by the agency survey, the highest level since April 2020. Japan's unemployment rate is likely to remain high in February as the epidemic continues.

Earlier this year, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said in an interview that he would support raising interest rates more than three times this year if U.S. inflation continues to soar. Investors need to pay attention to his speech on Tuesday to observe whether their views on interest rate hikes change.

Wednesday (March 30) Keywords: API crude oil inventory changes, US March ADP employment, EIA crude oil inventory changes

US to March 18 API crude oil inventories decreased by 4.28 million barrels in the week of the day, but the change in EIA crude oil inventories in the week ended March 11 actually announced an increase of 4.345 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels, and a decrease of 1.863 million barrels from the previous value. As the epidemic continues, oil demand is still suppressed.

The U.S. ADP employment number in February was better than expected due to the hot hiring in the service industry and other industries. The number of U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February than expected, and the previous value was revised from a decline to an increase. The service industry, which has been severely affected by the epidemic, has become the main driving force for employment growth in the United States, mainly including leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and retail. Economists predict that rising labor supply and rising wages will further support the rapid recovery of the U.S. job market.

Thursday (March 31) Keywords: China's March official manufacturing PMI, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the OPEC+ meeting

In February, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.1 points from the previous month Percentage points, continue to be higher than the critical point, the level of manufacturing prosperity rose slightly. March data is expected to improve.

Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed initial jobless claims for the week ended March 19 were 187,000, below market expectations of 210,000 and a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week. The figure, the lowest since 1969, shows employers are struggling to keep workers at a time when job openings are near record highs and labor force participation rates are falling.

Continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.35 million in the week ended March 12, the lowest level since 1970. The four-week average of jobless claims for the week ended March 19 was 211,800.

Jobless claims are expected to remain low as dwindling savings and decades of high inflation are boosting Americans' financial incentive to work. The low level of jobless claims reflected what last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called the labor market "unhealthy to unhealthy levels"; Powell noted that there are millions of job openings in the U.S. and unemployment is at historically low levels.

On March 2, the 26th OPEC+ ministerial meeting was held, in which it was decided to maintain the production increase plan of 400,000 barrels per day for the ninth consecutive month, and oil prices continued to rise. On March 31, the 27th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial video conference was held. Investors need to pay attention to the results, which are expected to affect the later trend of oil prices.

Friday (April 1) Keywords: Markit manufacturing PMI final value of many European countries, US March non-farm payroll, Chicago Fed President Evans

Euro zone manufacturing PMI final value in February was 58.2, down from 58.7 in January . Demand for goods in the euro zone has grown at the fastest pace since August last year, supplier delivery times have been extended since January and inflation remains steep. The final values ​​of the manufacturing PMIs of major member countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain were 60.6, 58.4, 58.3, 57.2, and 56.9, respectively.

After the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, supply chain problems have further deteriorated, and the economic outlook in Europe remains unclear. The data for March is still not optimistic.

The February non-farm payrolls report released by the US Department of Labor showed that the US non-farm payrolls increased by 678,000 in February, far exceeding market expectations of 400,000 and the previous value of 467,000, the largest increase since July last year. Prior to this, the US non-farm payrolls also unexpectedly added 467,000 in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continued to improve. The non-agricultural unemployment rate in February was 3.8%, lower than the market expectation of 3.9% and the previous value of 4%, and a new low since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in February 2020.

The February non-farm payroll report not only exceeded expectations, but more importantly, the data showed that the labor supply shortage problem was improving "on the way", which was in line with the March Fed Beige Book that "some regions reported improved labor supply." Sporadic signs” and “signs of slowing wage growth reported in some regions” are consistent, or reveal that the peak period of labor supply shortage has passed, and the subsequent labor shortage will drag down production, and the driving force of hourly wages and inflation may gradually. weaken.

On March 24, Chicago Fed President Evans did not signal any desire to raise rates by half a percentage point in a single meeting, unlike some of his colleagues who had backed a 50 basis point hike in previous days. He will speak again on April 1, and investors should continue to monitor whether his views change.

In addition to the above data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development and changes of the global epidemic and the news of the situation in Ukraine. The latest reports say that the EU and the US have reached a large gas deal. The EU will buy at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States by the end of this year to replace energy imports from Russia. As Western sanctions intensify, Russia considers accepting bitcoin for gas and crude oil. Actions by the West and Russia next week will further affect the gas and oil markets.

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