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2022年3月26日星期六

Expectations of interest rate hikes have increased, the dollar has rebounded, gold has risen for three consecutive days, and Brent oil has risen 11% this week

 The U.S. dollar index was steady on March 25, after falling as much as 0.4 percent earlier, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond surged 11 basis points to 2.48 percent, as traders' expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve strengthened. As the Russian-Ukrainian war and accelerated global inflation spurred the inflow of funds into safe-haven assets, spot gold rose for the third day in a row, closing at around $1,958 in late trading. Brent oil rose more than 1 percent, recovering to $5 from a session low, and has risen nearly 11 percent this week as traders weighed attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the potential release of U.S. oil reserves.


The U.S. dollar index was steady on Friday (March 25) , up 0.56% this week, its sixth weekly gain in the past seven weeks; benefiting from its status as a safe-haven asset, and the Ukraine conflict boosted people's expectations that the Fed will Rate hike expectations. Spot gold rose nearly 2 percent this week, as concerns over the war in Ukraine and rising prices bolstered its appeal as a safe-haven and inflation hedge. Oil prices posted their first weekly gain in three weeks as the European Union continued discussions on how to reduce its reliance on Russian energy and Saudi energy assets were attacked.


In terms of commodities closing, COMEX April gold futures closed down 0.4% at $1,954.20 per ounce; WTI May crude oil futures closed up $1.56, or 1.39%, at $113.90 per barrel; Brent May crude oil futures closed up 1.62 The U.S. dollar rose 1.36 percent to $120.65 a barrel.

U.S. stocks closed: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 4,543.06 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to 34,861.24 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% to 14,169.3 points; the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1 % to 14,754.31; the Russell 2000 rose 0.1% to 2,077.983.

List of major global market conditions


U.S. stocks were volatile on Friday, with bargain-hunting buying near the close pushing the broader market higher. U.S. Treasuries fell, with the short end of the yield curve bearing the brunt. The S&P 500 closed up 0.5%, near the session high, and traded 1% for the day, its weakest since Feb. 15. The Nasdaq 100 ended little changed. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, one of the most sensitive to changes in interest rates, rose 14 basis points to 2.28%. The S&P 500 was up and down this week

as investors grappled with risks to the economic recovery from tightening monetary policy and the Russian-Ukrainian war . But despite market volatility, stocks posted their second week of gains. "I think this week is a good demonstration of why we shouldn't be too concerned about the short-term and volatility or headlines because obviously it's rebounding as fast as it's falling," said Nancy Daoud, CEO and private wealth advisor at Ameriprise Financial Services LLC. Quick, this is a very good proof that holding strategies is much better and more effective than timing.
 

Precious Metals and Crude Oil


Gold rose for a third straight session as Russia's war with Ukraine and accelerating global inflation spurred flows into safe-haven assets. Spot gold was largely steady on Friday, closing near $1,958, after rising nearly 2 percent over the past two sessions after the U.S. announced a new package of sanctions against Russia, adding 1.9 percent for the week.

Russia's war with Ukraine has added to inflationary pressures in the world's major economies, with investors worried about disruptions to Russia 's supply of commodities such as natural gas , wheat, aluminum and nickel , outweighing an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields interest rates; higher bond yields are generally detrimental to gold. Daniel Briesemann, analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report that there is clearly a need to buy gold as a safe-haven in the context of still high geopolitical tensions, and given the high level of bond yields, we are firm on gold prices. deep impression. Brent's May contract rose more than 1 percent to above $120 a barrel on Friday, as traders weighed a missile attack on a Saudi oil distribution facility and the potential release of U.S. oil reserves; oil prices fell earlier after CPC The Caspian oil pipeline terminal has resumed some exports, and the European Union still does not impose an embargo on Russian energy, as member states remain divided. Yemen's Houthi rebels said they launched an attack on a Saudi energy facility on Friday, and the Saudi-led coalition said the Saudi Aramco fuel distribution station in Jeddah had been attacked, but fires at two of the facility's oil storage facilities had been contained. Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said in a market that has already reduced Russian oil supplies, there is another thing to worry about. Houthi attacks could affect Saudi production. He noted that Houthi attacks are becoming more frequent.

A U.S. source said on Friday that the Biden administration is considering another release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that, if implemented, could exceed the 30 million barrels released earlier this month.

foreign exchange


The U.S. dollar index was steady on Friday as crude oil prices reversed earlier weakness, adding to pressure on the Federal Reserve to aggressively fight inflation. Market volume was moderate and oil-sensitive currencies strengthened after reports of a fire at an oil facility at Saudi Aramco. Unwinding ahead of the weekend helped the yen pared its losses for the week.

The dollar index was little changed, up 0.56% for the week, its sixth weekly gain in the past seven weeks. The U.S. dollar benefited from its status as a safe-haven asset and the conflict in Ukraine boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

The war in Ukraine and the ensuing rise in commodity prices have added upward pressure to already high inflation.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said one thing everyone can agree on is that inflation will last longer, and a lot of it will be sticky, which will complicate the eventual actions of central banks. You could see the dollar lead with rate hikes, Europe will lag, and that spread should provide some support for the dollar.

Bank of America called on the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively. A small number of investment banks have made the same call before, and the number is growing. Bank of America now expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points at both its June and July meetings, and the "risk" to these expectations is that the Fed may raise rates by 50 basis points each in May and June ahead of schedule.

EUR /USD slipped 0.1% to $1.0984 on selling at the London fixing, although speculation was relatively muted; European bond yields fell after Germany's IFO index weakened and the U.S. and European Union also announced a gas supply deal ; the euro fell about 0.5% this week. Implied volatility is broadly lower; large options with a strike price of $1.10 are expected to expire next week. EUR/ CHF dipped below the 1.02 level for the first time since March 14 before recovering to 1.0235.

USD/JPYIt fell nearly 1% to 121.17 at one point, before rebounding to 122.08 late in the session, snapping a five-day winning streak; however, the pair is still up 2.46% for the week. Although bond yields rose to their highest levels since January 2016, sparking speculation that the BOJ would offer unlimited bond purchases at fixed rates, the BOJ did not intervene.

Sterling was last at $ 1.3182 against the dollar, down 0.02% on the day. USD/ CAD fell as much as 0.5% to a two-month low of 1.2464 on higher crude oil prices and higher real yields on Canadian government bonds; the Canadian dollar gained more than 1% for the week.

The Norwegian crown was the best-performing G10 currency this week, while the dollar fell 1.6 percent against the Norwegian crown this week after the country's central bank announced a rate hike on Thursday.

market news


[Saudi Energy Ministry accuses the Houthis of undermining the security and stability of the world's energy supply] On March 25, local time, the Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry issued a statement expressing its strong condemnation of Yemen's Houthis attacking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that day. The statement said that two oil facilities in Jeddah and Jizan in Saudi Arabia were hit by missiles that day. The statement accused the Houthis of attacking not only against Saudi Arabia, but also an attempt to undermine the security and stability of the world's energy supply. The Saudi Energy Ministry also said that the Houthi attacks are affecting Saudi Arabia's ability to perform in the international energy market. (CCTV News)

[New York Fed President Williams: The Fed is withdrawing a highly loose monetary policy. The call for communication to avoid spillovers comes at a time when the Fed has already started raising rates. Communication can help reduce volatility risk and reduce confusion for all parties. The Fed is closely watching inflation expectations, and U.S. medium- and long-term inflation expectations are apparently stable. Seeing a shift in the monetary policy stance of global central banks. The market has fluctuated since the Fed started raising interest rates for the first time since 2018 in March, but the magnitude is moderate]

[Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Russia and Ukraine have not yet reached a consensus in the negotiations, Russia insists on an ultimatum] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba on the 25th On social media, Ukraine has not yet reached a consensus in talks with Russia. Kuleba stressed that Ukraine's position is clear: ceasefire, security, no compromise on territorial integrity. But Russia insisted on an ultimatum. (CCTV News)
 
[Central Bank of Russia: Gold will be purchased from banks at a fixed price in the next three months] The Central Bank of Russia announced that starting March 28, it will buy gold from banks at a fixed price of 5,000 Russian rubles/gram until June. 30 days.

[The Shanghai Stock Exchange imposes price fluctuation restrictions on the trading of Chinese depositary receipts, and the rate of increase and decrease is 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Interim Measures for the Listing and Trading of Depository Receipts for Interconnection between Shanghai Stock Exchange and Overseas Stock Exchanges". The Shanghai Stock Exchange imposes price fluctuation restrictions on the trading of CDRs, and the fluctuation ratio is 10%, unless otherwise specified in these Measures. If the Shanghai Stock Exchange is closed for 7 natural days or more throughout the day, the ratio of ups and downs on the first trading day after that is 20%. CDRs purchased by investors on the same day shall not be sold on the same day, unless otherwise stipulated by the Exchange. Individual investors participating in CDR trading shall meet the following conditions: The daily assets in securities accounts and capital accounts shall not be less than 20 trading days prior to the opening of the application authority.RMB 500,000 (excluding funds and securities raised by the investor through margin trading and securities lending); participating in securities trading for more than 24 months; no serious bad credit record; no domestic laws, business rules of the Exchange, etc. Circumstances where participation in securities transactions is prohibited or restricted.

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